The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) has projected victory for opposition NDC in the 2024 elections even though the polls are years away.
The EIU however says it expects the opposition to present a fresh face for the presidential contest despite reports that former President John Mahama will contest to lead the party again.
“The next parliamentary and presidential elections are due in 2024. Under the
constitutionally mandated term limits, Mr Akufo-Addo cannot run for a third
term. Mr Mahama is reportedly considering whether to run again, but we
expect the NDC to seek to revitalise its prospects with a fresh candidate. After
two terms of NPP government, we expect the NDC to win 2024 presidential
election and to gain a small majority in parliament,” the latest report of the firm obtained by Starr News said.
It added: “In the 2020 parliamentary election, the NPP and the NDC each won 137 seats, but in January the one independent member of parliament (MP) announced
that he would co-operate with the NPP, giving it the 138 seats needed for an
effective majority. With a razor-thin majority, the Akufo-Addo administration
will require all of its MPs to vote with the party in order to push through
signature policies, which is likely to necessitate deal-making to persuade MPs,
which stands to obstruct immediate policy priorities, such as reducing a large
fiscal overhang through expenditure cuts and tax rises”.
On the country debt situation, the EIU noted: “Economic structure risk remains CCC-rated. The current-account deficit, which is estimated to have averaged 2.8% of GDP over the past 48 months, is a drag on the score. The country is currently estimated to be in default, following a rise in principal arrears owed to external official creditors in 2018. Arrears will remain substantial, raising the perceived risk of a prolonged default among investors.
Regarding the structure of the national accounts, the services sector is the
largest sector of the economy, accounting for about 45% of GDP”.